美国国家应急规划情景（2006）中文简译 之 情景9：大地震
写在前面：情景构建是近年来公共安全管理领域最热门的专业方法之一，对应急准备规划、应急预案管理和应急培训演练等一系列应急管理工作实践具有不可或缺的支撑和指导作用，对企业的应急、连续性和危机管理也意义重大。为学习情景构建方法和推进企业级情景构建项目，我在今年3月份组织了一个公益翻译小组（小组成员征募链接： https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ua-JgZUIUY4xHEbsN8qiXQ），对一些主要的情景构建资料进行翻译。7月份前后，翻译小组成员陆续将翻译文稿发送给我，近期我会将这些资料审校完成，陆续在公众号发布。
刘铁民在《重大突发事件情景规划与构建研究》一文中指出：《美国国家应急规划情景》（2006）由美国国土安全部组织了近1500名应急管理官员和来自大专院校与科研单位的科学家，经过一年多的调查研究，认真总结回顾了之前发生在美国和其他国家的重大突发事件典型案例，尤其是对未来可能发生重大突发事件的风险做了系统分析与评估，对可能发生事件的初始来源、破坏严重性、波及范围、复杂程度以及长期潜在影响作了系统归纳和收敛。经过反复多次评审和修改，总结提出15种重大突发事件情景是美国面临最严重的风险和挑战，这些情景被列为国家应急准备战略最优先考虑的应对目标。为强调对应急预案编制工作的指导性，又进一步把这15种重大突发事件情景整合集成为具有共性特点的8个重要情景组（如下表），使应急准备的重心更加聚焦。
| 重要情景组 | 国家预案编制情景 |
|---|---|
| 1.爆炸物攻击—使用自制爆炸装置进行爆炸 | 情景12：爆炸物攻击—使用自制爆炸装置进行爆炸 |
| 2.核攻击 | 情景1：核爆炸—自制核装置 |
| 3.辐射攻击—辐射扩散装置 | 情景11：辐射学攻击—辐射学扩展装置 |
| 4.生物学攻击—附病原体附件 | 情景2：生物学攻击—炭疽气溶胶 情景4：生物学攻击 情景13：生物学攻击—食品污染 情景14：生物学攻击—体表损伤皮肤疾病 |
| 5.化学攻击—附各种毒剂附件 | 情景5：化学攻击 情景6：化学攻击—有毒工业化学品 情景7：化学攻击—神经毒气 情景8：化学攻击-氯容品爆炸 |
| 6.自然灾害—附各种灾害附件 | 情景9：自然灾害—大地震 情景10：自然灾害—大飓风 |
| 7.计算机网络攻击 | 情景15：网络攻击 |
| 8.传染病流感 | 情景3：生物学疾病暴发—大流行性流感 |
本篇为《美国国家应急规划情景》（2006）中文简译的”情景9：自然灾害 — 大地震”部分，其中，情景7、8、9由公益翻译团队专家：
程贵东（成都，chengdong888@126.com） 刘 雪（合肥，lurel_duoduo@sina.com）
合力完成，感谢公益翻译团队的专家抽出个人休息时间进行翻译工作。
以下译文由我负责最终统一审校定稿，如译文中有任何不准确或理解错误的地方，都是由于我的原因造成，与诸位翻译人员无关。如对译文有意见或修改建议，请给我留言。
王曙(kevinwang) 2024.11.17
情景9：自然灾害 — 大地震 Scenario 9: Natural Disaster – Major Earthquake
| 项目 | 描述 |
|---|---|
| 伤亡情况 Casualties | 1,400人死亡；18,000人住院治疗 1,400 fatalities; 18,000 hospitalizations |
| 基础设施损坏 Infrastructure Damage | 150,000栋建筑被毁，1,000,000栋建筑受损 150,000 buildings destroyed, 1 million buildings damaged |
| 撤离与流离失所者 Evacuations/Displaced Persons | 300,000户住宅被毁；250,000人在安全区避护；250,000多人自行撤离灾区 300,000 homes destroyed; 250,000 seek shelter; 250,000+ self-evacuate |
| 污染情况 Contamination | 某些地区存在危险物质 From hazardous materials, in some areas |
| 经济影响 Economic Impact | 数千亿美元 Hundreds of billions |
| 多重事件的可能性 Potential for Multiple Events | 是，可能会有余震 Yes, aftershocks |
| 恢复时间表 Recovery Timeline | 从数月到数年 Months to years |
9.1 情景概述 Scenario Overview：
9.1.1 一般描述 General Description —
地震发生在地表下的板块突然移动时，导致板块间的挤压和压力累积，多数地震发生在板块交界处。断层是地壳中的裂缝，沿着这个裂缝，地壳的两个块体相对滑动。地震的强度可以用多种方式表示。地震震级通常以里氏震级表示，是衡量地震波振幅的一个指标。地震矩震级则表示地震释放的能量大小，这一数值可以通过地震仪的读数来估算。地震烈度是通过”修正的麦加利烈度（MM）“来表达的，这是一个主观的量度，用于描述特定地点的震感强度。
Earthquakes occur when the plates that form under the Earth’s surface suddenly shift, causing binding and pressure, and most earthquakes occur at the boundaries where the plates meet. A fault is a fracture in the Earth’s crust along which two blocks of the crust move relative to one another. The strength of an earthquake can be expressed in several ways. Earthquake magnitude is usually expressed as the Richter magnitude, a measure of the amplitude of seismic waves. The seismic moment magnitude is a measure of the amount of energy released by the earthquake, which can be estimated from seismograph readings. Earthquake intensity is expressed using the Modified Mercalli (MM) Scale, which is a subjective measure describing how strongly a particular location is shaken.
里氏震级（Richter Scale）是对地震强度的对数刻度。例如，震级为7级的地震其地面运动的幅度是震级为6的地震的10倍。震级为2的地震通常是人类能够感觉到的最小地震。通常来说，震级6或以上的地震被认为是大地震；而震级为8或以上的地震则属于特大地震。“麦加利烈度（MM）“刻度则用于表示在某一特定地点的影响程度，范围从I到XII。
The Richter Scale is logarithmic, so a recording of 7, for example, indicates a disturbance with ground motion 10 times as large as a recording of 6. A quake of magnitude 2 is the smallest quake normally felt by humans. Generally, magnitude 6 or greater is considered a major earthquake; magnitude 8 or greater is considered a great earthquake. The MM scale, which ranges from I to XII, is used to describe the level of impact at a particular location.
在本情景中，一场7.5级地震发生在大城市圈的一个断层带上，随后又发生了8.0级的地震。地震的烈度在”麦加利烈度（MM）“中达到了VIII或更高，强烈震动波及了整个大城市地区的大范围区域。这次地震严重影响了一个拥有约1000万人口的六县区域。
In this scenario, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake, with a subsequent 8.0-magnitude earthquake following, occurs along a fault zone in a MMA. MM Scale VIII or greater intensity ground shaking extends throughout large sections of the metropolitan area, greatly impacting a six-county region with a population of approximately 10 million.
9.1.2 详细情景 Detailed Scenario —
一次7.5级地震发生在一个位于大城市圈的断层带上。地震引发的地面震动达到”麦加利烈度（MM）“表VIII级或以上，影响范围覆盖了大城市地区的大部分区域，严重影响一个拥有约1000万人口的六县区域。断层带上发生长达45英里的地下断裂，穿越多个人口密集的地方行政区，造成广泛的破坏。地震持续了约25秒。在震源25英里范围内的区域地震烈度达到或超过”麦加利烈度（MM）“VIII级，足以对普通建筑造成严重破坏。
A 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurs along a fault zone in a MMA. MM Scale VIII or greater intensity ground shaking extends throughout large sections of the metropolitan area, greatly impacting a six-county region with a population of approximately 10 million. Underground rupture extends for 45 miles along the fault zone, crossing numerous densely populated local jurisdictions and causing widespread damage. The earthquake lasts approximately 25 seconds. The earthquake produces MM Scale VIII or greater intensity ground shaking within a 25-mile radius of the epicenter, sufficient to cause severe damage to ordinary buildings.
最初的震惊之后，随之而来的是一场8.0级地震，造成了更大的破坏。
This initial shock is followed by an 8.0-magnitude earthquake that causes further damage.
9.2 规划考虑因素 Planning Considerations：
9.2.1 地理考虑因素/描述 Geographical Considerations/Description —
地震发生在人口稠密的城市和郊区，该地区过去有地震活动的历史。大城市圈的最高点大约海拔5000英尺，最低的陆地海拔仅几英尺。大多数建筑环境和人口位于较低海拔地区。
The earthquakes occur in a densely populated urban and suburban area with a past history of earthquake activity. The highest points in the MMA are approximately 5,000 feet above sea level, and the lowest land elevations are a few feet above sea level. Most of the built environment and the population are located in the lower elevations.
9.2.2 时间线/事件动态 Timeline/Event Dynamics —
尽管科学家们一直预测该地区未来某个时候可能会发生一次中度到灾难性的地震，但在此事件发生前的几天和几周内，并没有具体迹象表明地震即将来临。
While scientists have been predicting a moderate-to-catastrophic earthquake in the region sometime in the future, there were no specific indications that an earthquake was imminent in the days and weeks prior to this event.
一场7.5级地震发生在一条地震带上，导致数百平方英里的大范围多州地区受损。与地震相关的快速水平移动使房屋从地基上滑移，并导致一些高楼坍塌或”煎饼式”坍塌（楼层向下塌陷，重叠在一起）。在底层沉积较弱或水分饱和的地区，震动更加剧烈。（注：在美国中部和东部，地震波传播效率高于西部地区。相比加利福尼亚州，同样规模的地震在中部和东部可能造成更大范围的破坏。）
A 7.5-magnitude earthquake strikes along the seismic zone, causing damage to a large multi-State area of several hundred square miles. Rapid horizontal movements associated with the earthquake shift homes off their foundations and cause some tall buildings to collapse or “pancake” as floors collapse down onto one another. Shaking is exaggerated in areas where the underlying sediment is weak or saturated with water. (Note: Seismic waves propagate more efficiently in the central and eastern United States than in the western United States. An earthquake of similar magnitude would cause damage over a much larger area in the central and eastern United States than in California.)
几小时后，发生了8.0级的后续地震。根据过去的事件，余震也是可能发生的。较大的余震可能会在主震之后几个月内发生。
Several hours later, a subsequent earthquake of magnitude 8.0 occurs. Based on past events, aftershocks are also possible. Sizeable aftershocks may occur for months after the original jolt.
9.2.3 假设 Assumptions —
尽管州和地方机构做出了严格的努力，但破坏的程度超出了它们的应对能力。 Despite rigorous efforts on the part of State and local agencies, the magnitude of destruction is overwhelming to their capabilities.
大约100,000名灾难受害者无法立即返回位于大城市圈内的永久性住房。 Some 100,000 disaster victims are not able to immediately return to permanent housing within the MMA.
州和地方的伤员筛查和治疗能力在灾区已经不堪重负。大多数主要的医疗设施已受损或无法运作。 State and local capabilities for triaging and treating casualties in the disaster area have been overwhelmed. Most primary medical treatment facilities are damaged or inoperable.
港口设施完全关闭1个月，恢复运营需要数月时间。大城市地区的主要机场将关闭约10天。 The port facility is closed completely for 1 month and will require months of work to restore operations. Major airports in the metropolitan area will be closed for approximately 10 days.
灾后前10天，大部分人口无法获得电力和饮用水。 Electric power and potable water are not available to large segments of the population for the first 10 days following the disaster.
灾后前10天，食品、药品、汽油和其他生活必需品的供应严重受限。 Delivery of food, medicine, gasoline, and other necessities is severely limited for the first 10 days following the disaster.
包括电话、无线电和手机在内的通信系统，在地震后的第一周逐渐恢复到90%的容量。 Communications systems—including telephones, radios, and cellular systems—gradually recover to 90% capacity in the first week following the earthquakes.
大城市地区的卫生/污水处理服务也出现了10天的中断，期间污水处理设施的基础设施正在修复。 There is also a 10-day disruption of sanitation/sewage services in the metropolitan area while the wastewater facility infrastructure is repaired.
9.2.4 激活的使命领域 Mission Areas Activated —
9.2.4.1 基础设施保护： 地震发生后，可以采取措施保护关键设施免受恐怖袭击，并维护社会秩序。 Infrastructure Protection: After the earthquake, measures can be implemented to protect critical facilities from terrorist attacks and maintain civil order.
9.2.4.2 应急评估/诊断： 整个地区都在进行灾害评估，但因道路受阻、通信不畅、恶劣天气以及缺乏受过良好训练的评估团队而受到了极大阻碍。空中侦察报告显示，私人住宅和公共建筑设施受损严重。 Emergency Assessment/Diagnosis: Damage assessment is underway across the region, severely hampered by blocked roads, communications difficulties, bad weather, and a shortage of trained assessment teams. Aerial reconnaissance reports heavy damage to private residences and public buildings.
9.2.4.3 应急管理/响应： 州和联邦灾害现场办公室已成立。环保署（EPA）和美国海岸警卫队（USCG）的现场协调员已到达现场，负责管理危险物质泄漏事件。美国红十字会（ARC）已派遣了数千名志愿者，并与州政府协作提供紧急医疗服务、避护所和食品分发。一处联合信息中心（JIC）已建立，用于向公众发布指示并回应大量的信息请求。所有城市搜救队将处于戒备状态，至少六支或更多队伍将被激活和部署。 Emergency Management/Response: State and Federal disaster field offices are established. EPA and USCG on-scene coordinators are in place to manage hazardous material spills. ARC has dispatched thousands of volunteers and is working with the State to provide emergency medical services, shelters, and food distribution. A JIC is established to provide instructions to the public and handle the high volume of information requests. All urban search and rescue teams are placed on alert; at least six or more teams will be activated and deployed.
9.2.4.4 灾害缓解： 需要联邦支持来协调制定计划，以实施缓解措施，从而减轻未来灾害的影响。为了减少或避免未来的灾害影响，缓解措施将主要是恢复和重建中的一项重要任务。 Hazard Mitigation: Federal support is needed to coordinate the development of plans to implement mitigation measures to reduce the effects of future disasters. Mitigation measures will be an important task in recovery and reconstruction to reduce or avoid future disaster impacts.
9.2.4.5 疏散/避护： 结构工程师正在检查关键建筑物、桥梁、高速公路、废物处理设施等，多个检查小组被派遣，以检查数百户家庭是否安全适居。临时住房策略和备选方案正在规划中。 Evacuation/Shelter: Structural engineers are inspecting critical buildings, bridges, highways, waste processing facilities, etc. Multiple inspection teams are dispatched to check hundreds of homes for safe occupancy. Temporary housing strategies and alternatives are being planned.
9.2.4.6 受害者护理： 由于大量伤者和流离失所者的出现，国防部（DoD）已发出预警命令，启动多个工作小组，提供大规模护理、健康和医疗服务。国家灾难医疗系统（NDMS）和灾难医疗救助小组（DMATs）已被部署，并携带物资和设备前往灾区。灾难停尸房应急响应小组（DMORTs）也已派出，以处理遇难者身份识别和遗体处理工作。 Victim Care: Due to the large number of injured and displaced persons, DoD has issued a warning order to activate multiple work groups to provide mass care, health, and medical services. NDMS and DMATs have been deployed with supplies and equipment to the affected area. DMORTs have also been dispatched to handle victim identification and remains processing.
9.2.4.7 恢复/补救： 危险物质（HAZMAT）将污染多个区域，去污和现场恢复将成为主要挑战。 Recovery/Remediation: HAZMAT will contaminate multiple areas, and decontamination and site restoration will be a major challenge.
9.3 影响 Implications：
9.3.1 次生灾害/事件 Secondary Hazards/Events —
9.3.1.1 天然气和石油危害： 值得关注的危险污染影响包括天然气压缩站和加工厂、石油炼油厂和大型油罐区，以及天然气/原油管道。 Natural Gas and Oil Hazards: Hazardous contamination concerns include natural gas compressor stations and processing plants, petroleum refineries and large tank farms, and natural gas/crude oil pipelines.
9.3.1.2 火灾： 历史上最大的两场和平时期城市火灾分别发生于1906年的旧金山和1923年的东京，这两场火灾均发生在地震之后。大多数城市区域存在高度集中的可燃物、易燃危险品以及点火源。火灾蔓延成大火的促成因素包括：（1）消防部门服务需求增加，不仅需要扑灭火灾，还需要参与搜索与救援以及危险物质处理（HAZMAT）事件；（2）通信系统受损导致的通知延迟；以及（3）由于交通路线上受损及碎片阻碍、供水系统可能受影响，导致响应延迟。 Fire: The two largest peacetime urban fires in history, San Francisco in 1906 and Tokyo in 1923, both followed earthquakes. Most urban areas have high concentrations of combustible materials, flammable hazardous materials, and ignition sources. Contributing factors to fire spread include: (1) increased demand for fire department services, not only for fire suppression but also search and rescue and HAZMAT incidents; (2) notification delays due to damaged communications systems; and (3) response delays due to damaged and debris-blocked travel routes and potentially compromised water systems.
9.3.1.3 洪水： 洪水可能由堤坝决堤以及水管和污水系统破裂引发。 Flooding: Flooding may be caused by levee failures and broken water and sewer mains.
9.3.1.4 基础设施和关键设施的损坏或可能损坏： 交通线路与节点、发电和配电设施、通信线路、燃料储存和分配系统、重点结构（如水坝、堤坝、核电站、危险品储存设施）以及提供基本服务的建筑（例如通常作为避难所使用的医院和学校）可能会受到损坏。这些设施需要进行损坏评估才能继续运营。服务可用性的降低将是破坏性的，而且代价高昂。 Infrastructure and Critical Facility Damage or Potential Damage: Transportation routes and nodes, power generation and distribution facilities, communications lines, fuel storage and distribution systems, critical structures (dams, levees, nuclear power plants, hazardous materials storage facilities), and buildings providing essential services (e.g., hospitals and schools typically used as shelters) may be damaged. These facilities require damage assessment before continued operation. Reduced service availability will be disruptive and costly.
9.3.1.5 疾病： 鉴于住房严重损毁，响应将包括提供避难所的工作。人群的集中将增加疾病传播的机会。 Disease: Given the severe housing damage, response will include sheltering efforts. The concentration of people will increase the opportunity for disease transmission.
9.3.1.6 废墟： 地震引发的地面震动产生了大量因建筑物倒塌而形成的废墟。FEMA的HAZUS模型初步估算，废墟的总量超过1.2亿吨。未加固的砖石结构建筑的破坏范围广泛，进一步增加了地震产生的废墟数量。 Debris: The earthquake’s ground shaking produces large quantities of debris from building collapse. FEMA’s HAZUS model provides a preliminary estimate of more than 120 million tons of debris. The widespread damage to unreinforced masonry buildings further adds to the quantity of debris generated.
9.3.1.7 危险品： 多个加油站的燃油泵受损，导致成千上万加仑的汽油泄漏到街道上。已收到多起有毒化学品火灾、释放有毒烟雾和化学品泄漏的报告。多个当地废物处理设施报告了废水和污水排放事故。超过300个废水处理设施面临泄漏或溢出的风险。除了可能的有害化学品泄漏外，当地建筑检查人员还担心，受损最严重的老旧建筑中很可能存在石棉污染。一处大型炼油厂的泄漏污染了港口设施，并正在向港湾扩散。 Hazardous Materials: Multiple gas stations have damaged fuel pumps, spilling thousands of gallons of gasoline into the streets. Numerous reports of toxic chemical fires, release of toxic fumes, and chemical spills are received. Several local waste treatment facilities report wastewater and sewage release incidents. Over 300 wastewater treatment facilities are at risk of leaking or overflowing. In addition to possible hazardous chemical releases, local building inspectors are concerned about likely asbestos contamination in the most heavily damaged older buildings. A leak from a large refinery has contaminated port facilities and is spreading into the harbor.
9.3.1.8 搜索和救援： 多达20,000人失踪，可能被困在倒塌的建筑物和地下通勤隧道中。地震将工人困在办公室内，将通勤者困在高速公路上。一些孩子被困在受损的学校里。专业搜救队正试图从倒塌的建筑物中救出被困人员，同时也在进行轻型救援。 Search and Rescue: Up to 20,000 people are missing, possibly trapped in collapsed buildings and underground commuter tunnels. The earthquake traps workers in offices and commuters on highways. Some children are trapped in damaged schools. Specialized search and rescue teams are attempting to extract trapped persons from collapsed buildings while also conducting light rescue.
9.3.2 伤亡情况 Fatalities/Injuries —
地震直接导致约1,400人死亡。超过100,000人受伤，导致地区医院和医疗设施不堪重负，其中大多数设施已受到严重损坏。约有18,000名伤者需要住院治疗。预计死亡和受伤人数的估算值还将上升。
Approximately 1,400 fatalities occur as a direct result of the earthquakes. More than 100,000 people are injured and continue to overwhelm area hospitals and medical facilities, most of which have sustained considerable damage. Approximately 18,000 of the injured require hospitalization. Both fatality and injury estimates are expected to rise.
9.3.3 财产损失 Property Damage —
超过100万栋建筑至少受到了中度损坏（约占建筑总数的40%），另有超过150,000栋建筑完全被毁。较老的建筑，尤其是那些在采用抗震建筑规范之前建造的建筑，遭受了重大损毁。在发生液化的地区，许多设计精良的结构由于地下土壤基础条件的失效而倾覆。
More than 1 million buildings were at least moderately damaged (40% of the buildings), and more than 150,000 buildings have been completely destroyed. Older buildings, notably those constructed prior to the adoption of seismic building codes, sustained major damages. In areas where liquefaction occurred, many well-designed structures overturned when underlying soil foundation conditions failed.
9.3.4 服务中断 Service Disruption —
9.3.4.1 医疗服务： 在该地区的196家医院中，只有23家报告运作功能超过50%，这使得该地区仅有约8,800张病床可供地震伤员和原本已经住院的患者使用。备用发电机的燃料即将耗尽，医院管理人员正在寻找替代地点以安置需要护理的患者。 Medical Services: Of the 196 hospitals in the area, only 23 are reporting greater than 50% functionality, leaving only about 8,800 beds available for earthquake casualties and already hospitalized patients. Backup generators are running low on fuel, and hospital administrators are seeking alternative sites to relocate patients needing care.
9.3.4.2 消防和急救服务： 消防和急救服务（EMS）站也受到损坏，在241个站点中，只有40个的运行能力超过50%。该地区的数十辆消防车和救援车受损严重，已无法使用。 Fire and EMS: Fire and EMS stations are also damaged, with only 40 of 241 stations operating at greater than 50% capacity. Dozens of fire trucks and rescue vehicles in the area are heavily damaged and inoperable.
9.3.4.3 交通运输： 空中侦察显示，该地区数百座桥梁倒塌，主要高速公路上有严重阻塞。多条主干高速公路的损毁阻碍了应急车辆的救援行动。一条主要高速公路的部分路段发生断裂，并被山体滑坡的碎石覆盖。铁路和机场跑道也遭受了中到重度损毁。交通拥堵一直持续。即使在事件发生72小时后，许多人仍然被困，无法获得交通工具或返回家中。 Transportation: Aerial reconnaissance reveals hundreds of collapsed bridges and severe blockages on major highways. Damage to several major freeways impedes emergency vehicle access. Sections of a major highway have broken apart and are covered by landslide debris. Rail lines and airport runways have also sustained moderate to severe damage. Traffic congestion persists. Even 72 hours after the event, many people remain stranded without access to transportation or the ability to return home.
9.3.4.4 能源： 公用事业公司报告了广泛的停电，发电和配电系统已经停运。地下燃料管道、输油管道和天然气管道也发生了多处破裂。 Energy: Utility companies report widespread power outages, with power generation and distribution systems down. Numerous breaks in underground fuel lines, oil pipelines, and natural gas pipelines have also occurred.
9.3.4.5 供水： 由于供水主干管断裂和停电，超过100万人无法获得供水。 Water Supply: Over 1 million people are without water due to broken water mains and power outages.
9.3.4.6 废水处理： 据报道，在断层线附近的废水主拦截管发生破裂，导致系统关闭，未经处理的污水泄漏到街道上。 Wastewater: A reported break in a major wastewater interceptor line near the fault line has caused system shutdown and raw sewage leaking into the streets.
9.3.4.7 无家可归： 由于住房结构性受损，超过30万户家庭被迫流离失所，另有8,000户因公用设施中断而暂时无家可归。约三分之二的流离失所者需要短期避难。现有的一半预先指定的避难所因受损无法使用。 Displaced Persons: Over 300,000 households are displaced due to structural damage to their homes, and an additional 8,000 are temporarily homeless due to utility outages. About two-thirds of the displaced require short-term shelter. Half of the pre-designated shelters are unavailable due to damage.
9.3.4.8 疾病： 人们担心，未经处理的污水、受污染的水源以及受污染的食物会引发疾病和传染病爆发，严重威胁公众健康。 Disease: Concerns exist about disease and communicable disease outbreaks from untreated sewage, contaminated water sources, and contaminated food, posing a serious public health threat.
9.3.4.9 商业影响： 随着部分人口迁移到大城市圈以外其它地区的临时住房，许多企业失去了员工和客户。 Business Impact: As part of the population relocates to temporary housing outside the MMA, many businesses lose employees and customers.
9.3.4.10 军事设施： 位于大城市地区的空军站、陆军基地和其他军事设施报告称，建筑受到了中等损坏，电力和供水设施暂时丧失功能，并因桥梁和立交桥受损导致通行困难。 Military Facilities: Air stations, Army bases, and other military facilities located in the MMA report moderate structural damage, temporary loss of power and water, and difficult access due to damaged bridges and overpasses.
9.3.4.11 港口设施： 港口的进出口和装卸能力受到严重影响。由于地基液化，港口起重机倒塌或移位，导致港口完全无法运作。受损和沉没的船只散布在邻近码头。 Port Facilities: Port access and loading capabilities are severely impacted. Port cranes have collapsed or shifted due to soil liquefaction, rendering the port inoperable. Damaged and sunken vessels are scattered along adjacent piers.
9.3.4.12 通信系统： 微波天线和通信基础设施的其它关键部件受损，导致通信能力受限。移动通信塔也受到损坏，地震后的高通信流量导致系统超载。许多互联网服务提供商（ISP）的服务器已停止运行，且持续的停电进一步影响了系统的正常运作。 Communications: Damage to microwave antennas and other critical components of communications infrastructure has resulted in limited communications capabilities. Cell towers are also damaged, and the high volume of post-earthquake communications traffic is overloading systems. Many ISP servers are down, and ongoing power outages compound system functionality.
9.3.5 经济影响 Economic Impact —
对国家经济的破坏可能是严重的，因为地震影响了主要的供应和交通中心。重建、修复、处理以及更换受损的基础设施将花费数十亿美元。私人财产和商品的更换费用也可能达到数十亿美元。
The disruption to the Nation’s economy could be severe, because the earthquakes impact major supply and transportation centers. Reconstruction, repairs, disposal, and replacement of lost infrastructure will cost billions of dollars. Replacement of lost private property and goods could also cost billions.
9.3.6 长期健康问题 Long-Term Health Issues —
许多人将在地震中丧生、永久致残或受伤。这也将导致与这一灾难性事件相关的心理健康问题。
Many people will be killed, permanently disabled, or injured as a result of the earthquakes. This will also be associated with mental health issues relating to this catastrophic event.